How big the shortfall could be

The Center for Global Development (CGD) says UK overseas aid funding is on course to miss the 0.3% of national income target by an estimated £400m by the end of 2027. Its researchers set out a range of possible outcomes:

• The central forecast from the Treasury's comparison of independent experts implies UK aid would be £410m less than anticipated, at only 0.29% of national income.
• Researchers said it was very plausible the shortfall would reach £580m, at only 0.28% of national income.
• Even the most conservative forecast implies a £250m shortfall.

Ian Mitchell, a CGD senior fellow and co-director of its Europe programme, described the estimates as "material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid".

Why the gap has opened

CGD attributed the projected gap to higher than expected inflation, which raises national income above spending review forecasts, and to a 2025 policy change around the FCDO budget. The picture follows a year in which the UK's official development assistance budget fell to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a drop of £987m. FCDO data released in September showed a 6.7% decrease in funding to least-developed and low-income countries, amounting to cuts of £118m.

Calls on the government

The researchers called on ministers to consider allocating additional aid funds in this week's budget to avoid criticism for missing the target. Mitchell said making up even a £400m shortfall could halve cuts to Africa that are likely to cost thousands of lives and mean the UK's de facto exit from the south and east of the continent.

Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, said she would like to see higher spending on development aid in the budget, adding that it was a real opportunity for the Treasury to address the shortfall and for the government to match words on Britain's place in the world with action.

Government and opposition positions

An FCDO spokesperson said the March 2026 multi-year ODA allocations set out spending plans for three financial years based on GNI at the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson said: "Moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes." The government has prioritised spending through multilateral agencies such as the World Bank's International Development Association and Gavi, and continued funding humanitarian support.

The 0.3% target for 2027 sits far below the 0.7% promised in Labour's manifesto, a pledge downgraded by Keir Starmer to boost spending on defence. On the opposition side, the Conservative party and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9bn a year to £1bn, a level unable to cover existing UN and World Bank contributions.

Charities have repeatedly said the government's deep aid cuts will hit children's education and increase the risk of disease and death in some African countries. Ministers are being urged to allocate additional funds in this week's budget; the March 2026 multi-year ODA allocations remain the government's set spending plans.