Payments resume, air cover in return

Under the UAE Saudi Arabia Yemen agreement, the UAE is set to re-enter the Yemen conflict by resuming payments to some government forces fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis in the south, according to sources in Yemen. In return, Saudi Arabia will provide air cover for the anti-Houthi force.

The deal is the first tangible sign that the deep rift between the two Gulf states over Yemen's future is starting to be healed, and the alarm behind it is clear on both sides: Houthi strikes immobilise Saudi Arabia's airports and some of its energy infrastructure, hitting the kingdom daily with drone and missile attacks.

The forces receiving the resumed funding are those the UAE knows well:

• Southern forces, mainly in the Giant Brigades, were previously trained and funded by the UAE and are seen as among the most effective anti-Houthi units.
• The UAE quit operations inside Yemen in January, cutting off its funding supply line to them.

Houthi pressure on the south

The advances pushing the two countries together have struck at the heart of the government's southern stronghold. On Friday two missiles fired by the Houthis struck the airport of Aden while a passenger plane was preparing to take off; no casualties were reported.

Yemen's information minister, Moammar Al-Eryani, gave the near-miss distances: "The missiles landed about 500 metres from the Yemenia Airways aircraft, and approximately 100 metres from the midpoint of the runway."

A day earlier, at least five people were killed and 16 injured in a Houthi attack on a presidential palace in Aden.

Yemen's UN-recognised government in Aden declared last week a counteroffensive to drive Houthi forces from the capital Sana'a, with limited success reported around Majzar near Marib and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Despite heavy losses, the Houthis are determined eventually to capture Taiz and Marib, the two remaining cities outside the old Southern Yemen's boundaries.

The separatist question left open

The new cooperation does not settle the dispute that caused the January rupture. Southern separatists this week demanded a referendum on secession that would restore the 1967-1990 borders; neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE has responded to the demand.

The Southern Transition Council has also not yet agreed for its troops to fight outside the borders of the old Southern Yemen, and a Saudi-approved referendum could lift that restriction. There is meanwhile no direct contact between the STC leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, and Saudi officials.

The rift opened in January, when Zubaidi fled to Abu Dhabi after a failed STC attempt to take charge across the south and announce a secession referendum within two years. In response, the Saudis bombed UAE arms shipments for STC forces, the UAE announced its exit from Yemen, and the Saudi-backed government said it would try Zubaidi for treason.

International response

The fighting has drawn in outside powers and drawn scrutiny of arms supplies:

• Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi said he was convening an emergency parliament session to grant the military powers to defend Saudi Arabia, stressing that Egypt would not be taking any offensive action.
• The UK has sent an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft, and discussions continue on a Saudi request for further military aid.
• The court of appeal in 2019 found the UK had acted unlawfully in issuing arms export licences during the Saudi bombing of Yemen in 2015-16, and Campaign Against Arms Trade said no proper assessment of breaches of international humanitarian law had been made.
• Saudi Arabia argues that it is acting in self-defence in line with the UN charter and says it has substantially revised its methods.
• The UN security council adopted a presidential statement on 15 October asserting Saudi Arabia's right to act in self-defence in line with international law.
• No accurate death toll since August is available, but more than 200,000 people have been displaced according to the UN, which is pressuring Aden-based humanitarian groups.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE has responded to this week's separatist demand for a referendum on secession, which remains the open question hanging over the new cooperation.