Russian strikes on Ukraine power plants follow intercepted grid attack plan
Russian missiles and drones hit power plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv this week, causing rolling blackouts and water outages, weeks after Ukrainian intelligence intercepted a Russian assessment targeting the country's grid.
Russian strikes on Ukraine power plants follow intercepted grid attack plan
Strikes on Kyiv's power plants
Russian strikes on Ukraine's power plants have escalated sharply this week. On Tuesday night, missiles and drones struck Combined Heat and Power Plants 4 and 5 and the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant in the Kyiv region, part of a barrage that also reached Kharkiv and has brought rolling blackouts and water outages.
The attacks went beyond generating plants. A major electrical substation that transfers electricity from two of the country's main nuclear power plants to the capital was also hit, and substations forming the "Kyiv energy ring" - the network that helps bring electricity from across the country to the capital - have been targeted throughout the barrage.
The consequences are already visible, according to the Ukrainian outlet Economic Pravda:
- It reported on Thursday that the three major power plants in Kyiv no longer have the ability to generate electricity.
- Its experts predicted up to eight hours of blackouts a day for Kyiv residents in a moderate winter with quick repairs.
- In the worst case, blackouts could stretch to 20 hours a day.
The Ukrainian government generally does not confirm specific damage to critical infrastructure, so the full picture of what was destroyed remains unclear.
The intercepted attack plan
The barrage matches a document Ukrainian intelligence said last month it had intercepted: a Russian assessment titled Analysis of Ukraine's Energy, Housing and Utilities Sectors. Ukraine's energy minister first briefed European allies about it last month, and a copy was first reported on by the New York Times.
The document sets out a range of goals, from "degrading the quality of life" of Ukrainians through power outages to fully shutting off the water supply. It predicts the campaign would cause the "deterioration of sanitary conditions and the forced outflow of residents from cities." It also identifies vulnerable targets across the energy grid and even contemplates strikes against high-risk sites, including the switchyards at several nuclear power plants.
For each facility, the assessment prescribes how many ballistic and hypersonic cruise missiles and jet-powered drones would be needed to knock it offline. Thermal power plants, substations and water pumping stations are assigned Geran 4/5 jet-powered drones and hypersonic or cruise missiles. Carried out in full, the document predicts, the campaign could destroy more than 90% of the power Kyiv is budgeted for each winter - in a city of 3 million people - with blackouts of up to 20 hours a day until equipment is repaired.
Ukraine's energy minister Denys Shmyhal said last month that the assessment is chillingly precise:
"There are two large documents, written very coldly and very clearly, with tables showing the number of weapons needed for each facility to destroy it."
"The types of weapons range from ballistic missiles to jet-powered and conventional drones. We understand how they are going to act."
The document does not name the Russian agency that produced it. European officials believe it was likely produced by analytical departments linked to the Russian military or intelligence agencies. Some specifics of the assessment are being withheld at the request of Ukraine's energy ministry, which said publication could aid further strikes. The Energy Ministry did not reply to questions on how the current Russian bombing strategy matched the proposals made in the document, or on which Russian agency developed it.
Ceasefire declared, strikes continued
The grid attacks have continued even as Donald Trump unilaterally declared an "energy ceasefire" last week between Moscow and Kyiv. Russia has stepped up its attacks on the Ukrainian power grid precisely as Washington and Kyiv are embroiled in a major political quarrel.
Political pressure and the risk ahead
The strikes are landing on a government under strain at home. Zelenskyy this week castigated Kyiv's city authorities for poor planning for the winter and for failing to protect the city's energy infrastructure. Protests over heat and electricity blackouts are also planned for Saturday, which could provoke a political crisis for the wartime government.
Ukraine's ability to defend its grid is also shrinking. Its stocks of US-provided PAC-3 missiles have dwindled, leaving it badly outgunned against the incoming barrages.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, said the situation is more dangerous than the previous winter:
"Last year, we were really on the brink."
"There's a very high chance that Russia tries to break us this winter."
Fesenko added that if the Kremlin previously believed in a clean military victory, it may now believe that not to be possible, and instead focus on destroying Ukraine's remaining infrastructure. For now, the next test comes on Saturday, when the blackout protests are scheduled.
