What the committee found

MPs on the defence select committee warn that Britain risks failing to deter future Russian aggression in the high north beyond the UK because of shortfalls in Royal Navy submarines and warships. Their evidence points to persistently low availability across the fleet:

• HMS Dragon took more than three weeks to reach the eastern Mediterranean in March, after a drone struck an RAF base in Cyprus; with no warships available, the destroyer had to be hauled out of dry dock to deploy
• The navy has five sonar-equipped frigates dedicated to hunting Russian submarines, below a target of eight, and the committee said it could take until 2037 to reach the stated requirement
• Reports said all five Astute-class attack submarines were in dock this summer, and none was at sea from June into the summer due to a mix of short-term and long-term refits

The Astute boats also cannot operate under ice, unlike their Russian equivalents, though certification exercises are in progress.

Why the high north matters

The high north refers to seas beyond Scotland, and the committee said the region has grown strategically significant amid growing Russian interest in energy pipelines and undersea cables at a time when Arctic seaways are opening up. The navy shadowed the Russian spy ship Yantar inside UK economic waters in November and January last year, accusing its sailors of trying to map strategic cables and shining lasers at RAF pilots.

Russia also seeks control of the northern sea route, a 3,500-mile (5,600km) lane along its Arctic coast that is the quickest maritime route from China to Europe, and which was navigable last year for four and a half months.

Dhesi's warning and the US question

Committee chair Tan Dhesi said the UK needs to face what he called a hard truth: it does not currently have all the capabilities to operate successfully in the high north. He added that publicly available evidence of low availability among destroyers, frigates and attack submarines calls into question whether the UK can meet its commitments.

The committee said the problem would be acute if the US did not support the UK in a crisis - a rare cross-party acknowledgment that under Donald Trump, US military help cannot be relied on. "There would be critical military gaps if the United States were not involved in countering such [Russian] aggression," the MPs said, adding that the UK, as the next largest Nato military in the region, must be prepared to increase its navy.

The MoD response and spending outlook

The MPs urged dramatic progress before the end of the decade, calling on the Ministry of Defence to draw up a plan ensuring more warships and submarines are at sea by 2030.

Any response is constrained by money: no significant extra funding for defence is expected until the next decade, with Andy Burnham's government committed to medium-term spending plans agreed under Keir Starmer. Starmer agreed to lift defence spending by about £30bn a year to 3.5% of GDP in 2035 but only signed off 2.7% by 2030, prompting John Healey's resignation as defence secretary; he returned as chancellor under Burnham with the plans intact.

In response, an MoD spokesperson highlighted a recent £330m investment to protect undersea infrastructure and noted that defence secretary Wes Streeting visited Iceland this month, watching HMS St Albans track Russian submarines in the north Atlantic. "We are clear-eyed about the threat Russia poses," the spokesperson said.