Paxton Talarico Texas Senate race draws tens of millions
Tens of millions of dollars are flowing into the Paxton Talarico Texas Senate race ahead of the November midterm elections, with Elon Musk's donations and James Talarico's record $64m quarter shaping a contest polls show essentially tied.
Paxton Talarico Texas Senate race draws tens of millions
The Paxton Talarico Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has drawn a wave of money ahead of the November midterm elections, with Elon Musk's recent donations and a record-breaking fundraising quarter from Talarico defining a contest that polls show essentially tied.
Musk's donations to Republican committees
In September alone, Musk gave $158m to the Senate Leadership Fund, the primary super political action committee backing Republican Senate candidates, Axios first reported. The donation accounted for more than half of the committee's fundraising in the third quarter.
Musk also gave money closer to the race itself:
- $10m to Lone Star Liberty Pac, the committee dedicated to supporting Paxton
- The gift came after Alex Latcham, president of the Senate Leadership Fund, requested the funding
- A source familiar with the matter confirmed the reporting to the Guardian
According to Axios, the money moved after internal polling work carried out by Musk's team together with the Senate Leadership Fund concluded that Paxton's prospects of victory were fading.
Talarico's record fundraising
The donations arrived as Republicans struggled to match spending by Paxton's Democratic opponent. Talarico, who released a summer ad painting Paxton as a politician with a history of corruption, raised $64m in the third quarter – the largest third-quarter fundraising of a Senate candidate in history, Politico reported.
Talarico, a young progressive known for faith-based messaging, defeated an established Democrat for the Senate nomination earlier this year.
How close the race is
Polls have shown the two candidates essentially tied, though some have Talarico polling narrowly ahead of Paxton. The race is among the most competitive in the country and was expected to cost millions of dollars, because campaigning in Texas is expensive.
The spending gap and the warnings
An unnamed Democratic strategist working in Texas said Talarico is fighting the battle essentially alone, while Musk and the full weight of the GOP fundraising apparatus outspends him 2:1. The Senate Leadership Fund had warned months earlier that supporting Paxton would cost anywhere from $150m to $200m, but Donald Trump chose Paxton himself to run against Talarico.
Musk's giving extends beyond this race: he has donated approximately $366m to federal committees in the 2025-2026 election cycle, the New York Times reported, compared with about $290m to help Trump in the 2024 cycle. That is despite his May 2025 prediction that he would do a lot less political spending in the future.
Andrew Romeo, a spokesperson for America Pac, said: "These robust investments have allowed the GOP apparatus to get its message out so Republicans can have a fighting chance to defy history". He warned that if Democrats take control of Washington and win key gubernatorial and attorney general races this November, America risks becoming, in his words, a socialist, woke and borderless country.
The Guardian has asked representatives for America Pac, Musk's political operation, for comment. The race heads to November's midterm elections with the two candidates in a statistical dead heat.
