What the commissioner is weighing

Reform UK is braced for a damaging ruling on its leader. Nigel Farage has been investigated since shortly after May, when the Guardian revealed that crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne gave him £5m just before the 2024 election, and the party does not expect the news to be good.

Standards commissioner Daniel Greenberg interviewed Farage last month, and the party believes the verdict could land at any moment. Insiders say they fully expect the initial judgment to go against him.

• Farage's defence is that the money was a personal rather than political matter that did not require registration.
• The rules state that financial support related to an MP's job must be registered if it was given in the 12 months before they entered parliament.

How an appeal could drag on

The party is not planning to accept an adverse finding. Reform insiders say they are readying a fightback through the appeals process, and the procedure gives them room to manoeuvre.

An MP under investigation can present further evidence to the standards committee and then appeal through the independent expert panel. Reform expects that route to be taken, which means the dispute over the undeclared £5m gift could continue for months after the initial report is published.

The byelection risk in Clacton

The stakes for Farage go beyond reputational damage. If parliament agrees to a penalty of more than 10 days of suspension, he could face a byelection in Clacton.

That outcome would be triggered by a recall petition requiring signatures from 10% of voters in his constituency collected over six weeks.

A party regrouping amid donor money

The standards row lands while Reform has been overhauling its headquarters. The party was destabilised by undercover investigations from Channel 4 and ITV in recent weeks and has fallen in the polls, and it has responded with a series of personnel changes.

Reporting by Channel 4, produced with Verbatim, led to a police inquiry into alleged attempts to orchestrate illegal overseas donations, and to the suspension of James Orr as head of policy and Dan Jukes as Farage's communications chief.

Orr and Jukes deny wrongdoing and an internal party report has cleared them, but the police investigation is ongoing. Undercover footage from Verbatim showed Orr suggesting Harborne could be caught by the forthcoming overseas donor cap, since he has only been a registered domestic voter in the UK since June; Reform insists the money will not have to be handed back.

The reorganisation has reshaped key roles:

• New treasurer Harvey Griffiths has taken a central role in day-to-day party business, while general secretary Tom Waterhouse has taken on vetting.
• Communications are now handled by communications director Ed Sumner and former journalist Miles Goslett.
• Amar Johal, a former government lawyer and former head of policy, has become acting head of people operations and is seen as a rising force.
• Chris Bruni-Lowe, Farage's polling guru and former campaign lead, has been asked back as an informal sounding board on strategy.
• Former head of operations Aaron Lobo has moved to run a Reform-focused TV channel hiring dozens of "journalists" to communicate directly with voters.

The party's mood is described as down but less bad than expected, partly because of a £72m gift from two donors, Harborne and Ben Delo. Since that windfall, Reform has begun a hiring spree, planning to take on 400 campaign managers in target seats, and has sent voters a mailshot that may be repeated. Raheem Kassam, a former communications chief now based in the US, plays an unofficial attack-dog role against the Tories, including calling Kemi Badenoch a "Nigerian scammer", which Conservative chair Kevin Hollinrake condemned.

The verdict from Greenberg could arrive at any time. Whatever it says, Reform intends to fight it through the independent expert panel, a process that could stretch the Farage standards verdict saga well into the months ahead.