Inflation expected to accelerate to 4.2%

Australia's monthly inflation reading was set for a key test, with official figures released at 11:30am expected to show the consumer price index climbing to 4.2% in the year to September, up from 4% the month before. The data arrived as rising fuel costs amid a worsening Middle East conflict added to cost-of-living pressures.

The Reserve Bank's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, which strips out volatile prices, was predicted to hold steady:

• Underlying inflation forecast at 3.6% in the year to the September quarter
• Headline consumer price index expected to rise from 4% to 4.2%
• Figures due at 11:30am on the day of release

Rate hike odds and the RBA's mood

Economists warned that anything above that 3.6% underlying figure would virtually guarantee a fifth interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank board met the following Tuesday. Financial markets were already pricing in about a 65% chance of a Melbourne Cup day rate rise.

Recent comments from top central bank officials suggested the bank was more worried about high inflation becoming entrenched in the system than about the rising rate of unemployment.

The report also landed in the middle of a parliamentary sitting week, and the opposition was expected to move quickly to use the figures to attack Labor over its management of the economy.

eSafety commissioner's warning on abuse

At Senate estimates, eSafety commissioner Julie Inman Grant said she and her family had endured a decade of online abuse and threats across the 10 years she had held the role. In her final Senate estimates appearance, she called it a sensitive and pivotal moment for parliament after the alleged attack on Helen Haines, describing the climate for women in senior government roles as dangerously febrile.

"When public officials are used for political point scoring, a target goes on our backs and we are subjected to an onslaught of online abuse," she said.

She added that the abuse had become routine: "this has been the normal state of affairs for me and my family for years, yet somehow this is meant to be accepted as part of public service."

She stopped short of identifying her attackers, although Elon Musk had branded her a "censorship commissar" while US Republican congressman Jim Jordan called her a "zealot for global takedowns".

Inman Grant argued that social media had changed character, saying: "Social media is no longer the once envisioned digital town square – it has become more like a gladiatorial arena." She said platforms continue to roll back abuse and violent speech policies that let some of the most egregious offenders out of digital jail, and that more needed to be done so the next generation of leaders could feel safe in online spaces or public-facing roles.

Greens cost-of-living pitch

Greens leader David Shoebridge was to address the National Press Club in Canberra, promising to help Australians struggling with cost-of-living, while facing questions about allegations against senator Jordon Steele-John.

The party's cost-of-living plan centred on two measures:

• Lifting the tax-free threshold from $18,200 to $26,000, which Shoebridge said would save the average working Australian more than $1,000
• An extra $1,000 a year for anyone on income support, a group covering pensioners, carers, students and job seekers

"No matter who you are, whether you're working, studying, looking for work or on a pension, you'll get more than $1,000," Shoebridge said.

Parliamentary Budget Office costings put the plan at about $22bn a year, paid for through higher taxes on gas exports and a market-based tax on resources companies.

On the questions hanging over his party, senator Jordon Steele-John was on leave from parliament amid an investigation into allegations about his conduct towards women. He has denied the allegations.

The inflation figures were due at 11:30am, with a fifth interest rate hike possible when the Reserve Bank meets the following Tuesday.