Record low by the numbers

Brazil's Amazon deforestation has fallen to its lowest level since records began, according to new government data. Prodes satellite data, considered the most accurate measure of forest loss, recorded a 41.8% fall over the past year, taking clearance down to 3,335 square kilometres - the smallest figure since measurements started in 1988.

• The new low beats the previous record low by 1,236 sq km, an area the size of Rio de Janeiro
• Since 2022, the year before the Lula administration began, the deforestation rate has slowed by 71.2%, according to Brazil's National Institute for Space Research
• The decline is attributed largely to stronger enforcement measures and state investment in environmental agencies

Where the forest was lost

The destruction remains unevenly spread across the region. Pará registered 33.9% of all Amazon deforestation in 2026, followed by Mato Grosso with 25.5% and Amazonas with 15.7%.

Even in the worst-affected states, the numbers were down by more than 45% on the previous year. Only one state moved in the opposite direction: Roraima, where deforestation rose by 0.4% and which is a Bolsonaro stronghold.

Cerrado also at a low

The improvement extends beyond the rainforest. The Cerrado savannah biome registered its lowest annual deforestation since 2001, at 5,516 sq km, and has fallen 48.4% over four years.

Deforestation at the centre of the vote

The figures land weeks before a presidential election run-off on 25 October between Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, two candidates with sharply different visions for the forest.

During Jair Bolsonaro's term in office, Amazon deforestation rose 59.5%, through cuts to forest protection agencies, reduced penalties and encouragement for illegal miners, loggers and land grabbers. Jair Bolsonaro was convicted for attempting a coup, and his son Flávio has vowed to release his father and let him take any position in government.

Marina Silva, the former environment minister, has warned that Flávio Bolsonaro will try to finish his father's "perverse project" to destroy the Amazon.

Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, said putting an end to forest destruction in Brazil is entirely possible - but everything depends on the election result. The country, he said, will choose between ending deforestation and ending the forest itself.

The electoral map itself tracks the forest's condition: in the Amazon region, Bolsonaro secured the most votes near areas of degraded forest, mines, ranches and soya monocultures, while Lula led in big cities and areas of intact forest.

The run-off on 25 October will determine whether the enforcement credited with the record-low Amazon deforestation continues.