European air fares 2027 could rise by up to 20%, Ryanair boss O'Leary warns
Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary predicted on Tuesday that European air fares in 2027 could climb by 10%, 15% or even 20%, which he called the biggest such increase in the region's history, as jet fuel prices soar because the war on Iran has choked off fuel supplies.
European air fares 2027 could rise by up to 20%, Ryanair boss O'Leary warns
Fare rise 'the biggest in history'
Travellers should brace for an air fare increase across Europe next year, according to Ryanair O'Leary, the chief executive of Europe's largest airline. Speaking at a news conference in Brussels, he forecast that European air fares 2027 could climb by 10%, 15% or perhaps 20% over the coming 12 months, a rise he described as the biggest in the region's history.
"You're going to see air fares rise next year in Europe, I think by 10, 15, maybe 20%."
Why jet fuel prices are soaring
The warning rests on the cost of kerosene. Jet fuel prices have soared in recent months because the war on Iran has choked off fuel supplies.
The industry body IATA's fuel forecast points to the scale of the shock:
- Jet fuel prices across 2026 were predicted to run 70% higher than the year before.
- The average for 2026 was estimated at $152 (£114) a barrel, against $90 in 2025.
Hedging gap leaves carriers exposed
O'Leary's forecast is tied to how little protection airlines hold against rising fuel costs. Ryanair was 80% hedged at $67 a barrel when the Iran conflict began in late February, but he said most European carriers, his own included, do not have significant airline hedging in place from April 2027 onwards.
He set out the position in his own words and figures:
- "We're 85% unhedged next year, and most of the other European airlines are in a similar position."
- Ryanair's 2027 contract covers only 15% of its fuel costs, at $85 a barrel.
- Spot rates are currently hovering at about double that level.
He predicted the exposure would lead to airline bankruptcies and takeovers. EasyJet, meanwhile, reported in July a £105m annual rise in fuel costs, having hedged 62% of its fuel requirements for the first half of 2027 and 37% for the second half.
Cut routes, cut seats
Carriers are already trimming capacity to save fuel. EasyJet announced in October that it was cutting 700,000 seats from its winter schedule. O'Leary, at the same Brussels conference, said Ryanair would cut 20 of its routes and more than one million seats from Belgium's winter schedule, after the Belgian federal government raised its aviation tax from €2 to €7 in January.
Industry leaders have said some carriers will struggle to survive the fuel price shock, and airlines do not know how long consumers will be able to afford pricier tickets.
